Institute for Conflict Analysis and Resolution George Mason University

ICAR News Network


Can We Envisage and Build a Peaceful Caucasus?
By Susan Allen Nan, ICAR Professor
Posted: 08/19/08

[Published, Financial Times, August 19, 2008] From Dr Susan Allen Nan. Sir, An elderly woman in Gori, quoted in your report "Medvedev sets deadline for troop withdrawal" (FT.com August 17), asks: "What will happen here?" That question offers a wiser focus than the reactive conflict escalation demonstrated by Georgian, South Ossetian and Russian forces, and by the inflammatory US rhetoric of the past nine days.

The Georgian-Russian war and history of Georgian-South Ossetian clashes demonstrate that military means will not resolve this conflict. Over the long term, nobody will win the current battles; no one group can sustain power over the others.

When the Russian forces return home, they will leave a fragile ceasefire and a chance for all to embrace a new approach. Ultimately, the Georgian, South Ossetian, Russian, American, Abkhaz and other interested people must develop relationships that protect everyone's security. The Georgians and Abkhaz have long shared the Inguri hydroelectric plant. We have seen zones of peace emerge in parts of Colombia, India, China, the Philippines and Peru. We have seen creative sovereignty arrangements sustain South Tyrol, the Aland Islands and Greenland. In our lifetimes, will we see a peaceful Caucasus, with shared access to a secure oil pipeline?

Now is the time to envisage and build what today is impossible. Who would have thought in the 1940s that we would see a European Union today?

Susan Allen Nan,
Assistant Professor,
Institute for Conflict Analysis and Resolution,
George Mason University,
Arlington, VA, US


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