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Russia's Power Game: Small Strategic Moves, Big Surprises
Ekaterina Romanova, ICAR PhD Student
Posted: 09/14/07

The name of Putin’s likely successor keeps Russians guessing over who will receive Putin’s “blessing” as heir apparent for the office. It came as a big surprise on Wednesday, when Michael Fradkov resigned from his position. It came as a bigger surprise when instead of naming one of the two highly fancied candidates to succeed Fradkov, Sergei Ivanov and Dmitriy Medvedev, both the first deputy prime ministers, Putin nominated Viktor Zubkov, a little-known to the public head of the Federal Financial Monitoring Service as a new prime minister.

In his statement of resignation, Michael Fradkov acknowledged that by his vacating the position, Putin should have no “constraints in making decisions about building the configuration of power with respect to the upcoming political events." This statement appeared to admit that Fradkov viewed himself as a nominal figure in the Russian politics. His resignation was predicted from the moment he was appointed to the position in 2004, yet, his stepping down in less than three months before parliamentary elections, and six months before presidential elections, combined with the nomination of Zubkov, was quite unexpected.

Putin’s decisions, particularly on appointments, have rarely been predicted correctly. The expected scenario where in 2008 the two Putin’s closest political allies assume the president and prime-minister positions and continue in the direction and tone set by Putin seemed logical and calculated. The two deputy prime ministers have increasingly taken on larger public roles and become more outspoken on matters well beyond their direct responsibilities. Zubkov’s appointment falls out of this seemingly transparent strategy.

What are the underlying motives behind such a political move? Considering that the nomination of the new prime minister came within several hours of the official resignation of Michael Fradkov suggests that this was not a spontaneous decision on Fradkov’s part, but, rather, was Putin’s well calculated strategy. This scenario parallels with Putin’s own entry into the office, yet, the history is not likely to repeat itself.

Few believe that Zubkov, age 66, will be the presidential frontrunner backed by Putin in the 2008 election. Zubkov appears to be another nominal, stand-in prime minister with a very limited political role, and yet with strong political and personal connections to Putin. The new president will rule Russia until 2016. Putin realizes that once he is out of office, his influence on political affairs will likely rapidly decrease, regardless of the strength of his present position. Putin skillfully places close allies in senior government positions in a continued effort to exercise influence on policy-making.

Putin is sending a strong message to the business world and placing a strong grip on the business elite in Russia. Through his appointment of the head of Financial Monitoring Service, whose responsibilities included the supervising of anti money-laundering programs, Putin’s intent appears to be to disconnect the political from the business worlds. This message suggests that business elite will have a limited impact on the policy making and the outcome of the elections. Putin’s larger legacy might be the establishment of a tradition of a strong and independent political system.

The transitional figure of Zubkov is not likely to threaten the economic stability of a strong rubble and positive economic climate. It seems likely that corruption cases and economic investigations will increasingly rise to the surface in the months before the upcoming presidential elections.

In the coming month prior to presidential elections, one cannot exclude additional unexpected scenarios. Putin has already sprung many surprises and probably has many more in store. But strengthening the governmental hierarchy and configuration of power (power of political elite, rather than power of big business) will most likely be the trend and his legacy as he prepares to leave office.

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ICAR News Network Russia's Power Game: Small Strategic Moves, Big Surprises Ekaterina Romanova, ICAR PhD Student Posted: 09/14/07 The name of Putin’s likely successor keeps Russians guessing over who will receive Putin’s “blessing” as heir apparent for the office. It came as a big surprise on Wednesday, when Michael Fradkov resigned from his position. It came as a bigger surprise when instead of naming one of the two highly fancied candidates to succeed Fradkov, Sergei Ivanov and Dmitriy Medvedev, both the first deputy prime ministers, Putin nominated Viktor Zubkov, a little-known to the public head of the Federal Financial Monitoring Service as a new prime minister. In his statement of resignation, Michael Fradkov acknowledged that by his vacating the position, Putin should have no “constraints in making decisions about building the configuration of power with respect to the upcoming political events." This statement appeared to admit that Fradkov viewed himself as a nominal figure in the Russian politics. His resignation was predicted from the moment he was appointed to the position in 2004, yet, his stepping down in less than three months before parliamentary elections, and six months before presidential elections, combined with the nomination of Zubkov, was quite unexpected. Putin’s decisions, particularly on appointments, have rarely been predicted correctly. The expected scenario where in 2008 the two Putin’s closest political allies assume the president and prime-minister positions and continue in the direction and tone set by Putin seemed logical and calculated. The two deputy prime ministers have increasingly taken on larger public roles and become more outspoken on matters well beyond their direct responsibilities. Zubkov’s appointment falls out of this seemingly transparent strategy. What are the underlying motives behind such a political move? Considering that the nomination of the new prime minister came within several hours of the official resignation of Michael Fradkov suggests that this was not a spontaneous decision on Fradkov’s part, but, rather, was Putin’s well calculated strategy. This scenario parallels with Putin’s own entry into the office, yet, the history is not likely to repeat itself. Few believe that Zubkov, age 66, will be the presidential frontrunner backed by Putin in the 2008 election. Zubkov appears to be another nominal, stand-in prime minister with a very limited political role, and yet with strong political and personal connections to Putin. The new president will rule Russia until 2016. Putin realizes that once he is out of office, his influence on political affairs will likely rapidly decrease, regardless of the strength of his present position. Putin skillfully places close allies in senior government positions in a continued effort to exercise influence on policy-making. Putin is sending a strong message to the business world and placing a strong grip on the business elite in Russia. Through his appointment of the head of Financial Monitoring Service, whose responsibilities included the supervising of anti money-laundering programs, Putin’s intent appears to be to disconnect the political from the business worlds. This message suggests that business elite will have a limited impact on the policy making and the outcome of the elections. Putin’s larger legacy might be the establishment of a tradition of a strong and independent political system. The transitional figure of Zubkov is not likely to threaten the economic stability of a strong rubble and positive economic climate. It seems likely that corruption cases and economic investigations will increasingly rise to the surface in the months before the upcoming presidential elections. In the coming month prior to presidential elections, one cannot exclude additional unexpected scenarios. Putin has already sprung many surprises and probably has many more in store. But strengthening the governmental hierarchy and configuration of power (power of political elite, rather than power of big business) will most likely be the trend and his legacy as he prepares to leave office. News Network Homepage / Armenia / 2008 Elections / Afghanistan / Diplomacy/ Egypt / Environment / Global Peace Index / Health / Immigration / Iraq / Iran / Islam / Kosovo / Nuclear Proliferation / Pakistan / Palestine-Israel / Russia / Somalia / South America / Turkey /		About ICAR Student Information Prospective Students Faculty and Staff Alumni Career Services Academic Programs Library ICAR In The News Events Technology Resources ICAR Publications Point Of View Center Center for World Religions, Diplomacy & Conflict Resolution