Institute for Conflict Analysis and Resolution George Mason University

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Somalia

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Al Jazeera Interview: Pirates Seize Saudi Super Tanker
Analysis by Michael Shank, ICAR PhD Candidate
Posted: 11/18/08

[Television Interview, Al Jazeera, November 18, 2008]
Michael Shank, a conflict analyst with the Institute for Conflict Analysis and Resolution at George Mason University, examines the root causes of piracy off the coast of Somalia and observes that military actions alone, ones that do not address these underlying conditions, will be unsuccessful. Shank identifies political instability, Somalia's humanitarian crisis, and the ongoing exploitation of the waters as the three root causes behind the increased piracy. Interview by Al Jazeera English, November 18th, 2008. Video courtesy of al Jazeera English. WATCH BROADCAST


RECENT COMMENTARY

Somalia Resurfaces
Michael Shank, ICAR PhD Candidate
Posted: 11/17/08

[Published, Foreign Poilcy in Focus, November 14, 2008]
At long last, the fragile state of Somalia seems to be slowly resurfacing from a searing bout of violence and humanitarian crisis. Interestingly, the light at the end of this decades-long tunnel is not burning at the behest of the United States or the United Nations; rather, it burns because Somali leaders, both within the government and without, have banded together. Frustrated by failed foreign interventions, they are now seeking sustainable Somali-based solutions. READ MORE


Poverty, Political Instability and Somali Piracy
Michael Shank, ICAR PhD Candidate
Posted: 11/14/08

[Published, Financial Times, November 14, 2008]
Sir, To assume that the pervasive and persistent Somali piracy off the Horn of Africa is sound and fury signifying nothing of political substance, and that the solution to the madness is simply a summoning and tightening of security, is to completely misread the problem ("Pirates of the Horn", editorial, November 11). READ MORE


What Iraq and Somalia Have in Common
Michael Shank, ICAR Ph.D. Student
Posted: 01/16/08

[Published, Arab News, January 16, 2008] In the United States' global war on terrorism, Iraq long ago became ground zero both for American forces and those eager to wage war against the West. But it has since also become a formula of sorts for US intervention in other key target areas. South of Iraq, in Somalia, the patterns are near identical and the consequences equally dire. READ MORE


Ethiopia-Eritrea Conflict Fueling Somali Crisis
Interview with Terrence Lyons, ICAR Professor
Conducted by Bernard Gwertzman, Consulting Editor, Council on Foreign Relations
Posted: 08/27/07

[Published, Council on Foreign Relations "Gwertzman Asks the Experts", August 22, 2007] Terrence Lyons, author of the Council Special Report Avoiding Conflict in the Horn of Africa: U.S. Policy Toward Ethiopia and Eritrea, says the United States sees the global war on terrorism as a reason for concern in the Horn of Africa. But what is fundamentally driving events on the ground, he says, are “local rivalries and more regionally based conflict dynamics,” primarily the continued bitter animosity between Ethiopia and Eritrea. READ MORE


Somalia, it is Time to Open Your Doors
Michael Shank, ICAR PhD Student, and Samatalis Haille, ICAR Masters Student
Posted: 08/14/07

[Published, International Herald Tribune/Daily News, August 12, 2007] Prominent Somali intellectuals and parliamentarians from sub-clans once constituting the core of the defeated Islamic Courts Union claim that old rivals are dominating the government and unwilling to share power. Oddly, the international community tolerates this refusal and as a result, the Transitional Federal Government’s (TFG) clan-catering continues unabated. Perpetual exclusion, however, is indefensible and unsustainable, visible in the continued violence in Mogadishu. A more representative government is imperative. The ongoing national reconciliation conference in Mogadishu, offers an opportunity to make the TFG a more inclusive entity as long as all parties are participating. Pass on this opportunity, however, and one passes on making Somalia a viable state. READ MORE


Somalia Needs a 'Reconciliation Readiness' Program
Michael Shank and Khadija Ali, ICAR PhD Students
Posted: 06/27/07

[Published, International Herald Tribune/Daily Star Egypt, June 26, 2007] Somalia’s decision to delay yet again the National Reconciliation Congress comes as no surprise.  The Transitional Federal Government’s (TFG) latest attempt at reconciliation was foiled long before the first session of congress began.  While many fingers point to Mogadishu’s boycotting majority, the Hawiye clan, whose demands were not met prior to the start of congress, the problems go deeper.  Despite the International Contact Group on Somalia’s endorsement of the congress and funding promises from United States special envoy John Yates, Mogadishu is not ready for reconciliation.  What it needs is a reconciliation readiness plan. READ MORE


What Role Should the U.S. Play in Somalia?
Terrence Lyons, ICAR Professor
Posted: 06/15/07

[Published, Council on Foreign Relations, Updated: May 30, 2007] Somalia's last stable central government fell in 1991. In the sixteen years since, anarchy has reigned in the nation at the tip of Africa's Horn. Warlords became the primary power brokers in the security vacuum until 2006, when a fundamentalist group called the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) ascended and threatened to topple Somalia's feeble Transitional Federal Government (TFG).Ethiopia intervened, routing the UIC and giving muscle to Somalia's weak national government. The United States, fearing the failed state would become a haven for terrorists, launched air strikes at suspected al-Qaeda operatives as they fled the Ethiopian offensive. Ethiopia's troops remain in Somalia, where a hostile population wants them out but the fragile security situation prevents their withdrawal. READ MORE


Memo to the Somali Government
Michael Shank and Khadija Ali, ICAR PhD Students
Posted: 06/01/07

[Published, Foreign Policy in Focus, April 19, 2007] Imagine a reconciliation process in Iraq that fails to include militias or Sunni and Shia hardliners? How about a reconciliation process in Afghanistan that sidelines violent Pashtos in the south? The chances of either process succeeding would be slim. In both cases, the excluded parties comprise a powerful majority and thus must be included for reconciliation to produce a lasting peace. Keep anyone out and they are bound to want in. READ MORE


Somalia's Second Chance
By Terrence Lyons, ICAR Professor
Posted: 05/15/07


Council on Foreign Relations session on February 22, 2007, featuring Vicki Huddleston, Charge D'Affaires, U.S. Embassy in Ethiopia (2005-2006); U.S. Ambassador to Mali (2002-2005) and Madagascar (1995-1997); Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Africa (1997-1999) and Terrence Lyons, Associate Professor of Conflict Resolution, George Mason University; Author, Council Special Report No. 21, Avoiding Conflict in the Horn of Africa: U.S. Policy Toward Ethiopia. Presider: Tom McDonald, Partner and Government Policy Practice Group Coordinator, Baker & Hostetler; U.S. Ambassador to Zimbabwe (1997-2001). LISTEN/READ MORE


Implications for the Somalia Conflict on the Horn of Africa
Interview with Terrence Lyons, ICAR Professor
Posted: 05/01/07

[Published, Council on Foreign Relations, January 3, 2007] Terrence Lyons, associate professor at George Mason University and author of a new Council Special Report on the Horn of Africa, discusses the conflict in Somalia and its implications for the Horn of Africa. He says Somalia's transitional government will be "less legitimate in the eyes of many Somalis" now that it is linked to the Ethiopian military. An African Union peacekeeping force would "offer prospects for greater security within Somalia," he says, but getting such a force into the country would take months. LISTEN/READ MORE



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