September 11, Crisis Resolution

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"Hope for 'negotiators' on N Korea"

Dennis Sandole
Prof. of Conflict Resolution and International Relations and Fulbright Visiting Professor of International Studies, Diplomatic Academy of Vienna

Financial Times, Mar 02, 2004

From Dr Dennis J D. Sandole.

Sir, Ambassador James Goodby presented a compelling case for a pragmatic approach to defusing the tense situation on the Korean peninsula ("Nuclear talks will test six nations in Beijing", February 24). Given the way the otherwise inconclusive six-power talks ended in Beijing on February 28, there is some evidence that Ambassador Goodby's wisdom may have prevailed.

We can only hope that, as the talks progress further through smaller working groups until another formal session is held before the end of June, President Kim Jong-il of North Korea does not think his country is next on the Bush administration's pre-emptive war hit list.

This may all turn on the outcome of the "clash" between the virulent "regimechangers" and the more flexible "negotiators" in the Bush White House and the effect on that outcome of US domestic politics. Given the upcoming US presidential elections and the drop in approval ratings for President George W. Bush over the Iraq war, there is some evidence that Americans are being put off pre-emptive war, making it more likely that Ambassador Goodby and the "negotiators" will prevail over the "regime-changers" before next November. The question now is: what would it take to convince Kim Jong-il that this is likely to be the case?