September 11, Crisis Resolution

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" If European forces are still in Bosnia what hope for Iraq disengagement? "

Dennis Sandole
Prof. of Conflict Resolution and International Relations and Fulbright Visiting Professor of International Studies, Diplomatic Academy of Vienna

Financial Times, December 10, 2005

From Dr Dennis J D. Sandole.

Sir, Prof Paul Rogers' recent report paints a bleak portrait of the situation in Iraq ("Iraq conflict still in early stages, report says", November 23). Not only will American and British troops have to remain in Iraq for years in order to secure their goals, for example "long-term access to oil from the region", providing further targets for global jihadists, but insurgents from Afghanistan will travel to Iraq for training and "combat experience" before returning home to resume stepped-up terrorist operations there against the foreign occupation and the Kabul government.

As we commemorate the 10th anniversary of the Dayton peace accords in Bosnia-Herzegovina, linkages are being made between the US-led presence in Iraq and the long-term presence of US, British and other forces in Bosnia, with European forces likely to remain even longer to maintain the peace as a basis for further reconstruction and eventual entry of Bosnia into the European Union.

If this is the likely future scenario for the international military presence in "oil-free", relatively tranquil Bosnia, where Nato-led forces stopped a war with no subsequent insurgency and where political leaders of the three main ethnic groups are finally dealing with the need to bring about necessary reforms, is it reasonable to assume that American and British forces can leave tumultuous, "civil war-rich" Iraq any time soon, especially with President George W. Bush still calling for "victory"?

The even more challenging questions for US, British and other policymakers are what would it take for such a withdrawal to occur in the near term, and are they doing what needs to be done to make that happen?

Alternatively, do they - especially the Americans - not really mind the security situation in Iraq, Afghanistan and around the world getting worse as that reinforces the potency of 9/11 as an emotional cover for continuing to advance otherwise contentious policies (for example, Vice-President Cheney's open call for permission to torture) plus guarantees that all those American forces once based in Saudi Arabia can remain in the region for yet another "rainy day" (for example, Syria and Iran)?